According to data released by FiveThirty Eight (data drawn on Monday, August 17th, 2020), Donald Trump wins an Electoral College majority in the 2020 US Presidential Election in 10,997 simulations out of a total of 40,000 simulations.
(a) I am interested in the probability that Donald Trump wins any one simulation from the Five Thirty Eight model. Write the parameter of interest. Write and calculate the estimate of your parameter using mathematical notation.
(b) Construct a 95% confidence interval for the parameter from (a), show at least 4 significant digits. I highly recommend using R, and only rounding at the end.
(c) TRUE or FALSE:
According to the FiveThirty Eight model, there is a 95% probability that the true parameter of interest from
(a) lies within your interval from (b).
(d) TRUE or FALSE:
If I were to repeat samples of 40,000 from the Five Thirty Eight model, I expect 95% of my sample statistics from (a) to lie within your interval from (b).
(e) TRUE or FALSE:
If I were to repeat samples of 40,000 from the FiveThirty Eight model, I expect 95% of samples to lead to 95% confidence intervals that cover the true parameter of interest from (a).
(f) People often misinterpret the FiveThirty Eight model to say that our previous results suggest that Donald Trump "shouldn't" or "won't" win the election. Explain why this is not a correct interpretation. Suggest, calculate, and explain an alternative conclusion from the simulation results that is more intuitive and interpretable.

Answers

Answer 1

Answer:

a) P = 0.274925

b) required confidence interval = (0.2705589, 0.2793344)

c) FALSE

d) FALSE

e) TRUE

f) There is still probability that he would win. And it would be highly unusual if he wins assuming that the true population proportion is 0.274925.

Step-by-step explanation:

a)

PROBABILITY

since total number of simulations is 40,000 and and number of times Donald Trump wins an Electoral College majority in the 2020 US Presidential Election is  10,997

so the required Probability will be 10,997 divided by 40,000

P = 10997 / 40000 = 0.274925

b)

To get 95% confidence interval for the parameter in question a

(using R)

>prop.test(10997,40000)

OUTPUT

1 - Sample proportion test with continuity correction

data: 10997 out of 40000, null probability 0.5

x-squared = 8104.5, df = 1, p-value < 2.23-16

alternative hypothesis : true p ≠ 0.5

0.2705589  0.2793344

sample estimate

p

0.274925

required confidence interval = (0.2705589, 0.2793344)

c)

FALSE

This is a wrong interpretation of a confidence interval. It indicates that there is 95% chance that the confidence interval you calculated contains the true proportion. This is because when you perform several times, 95% of those intervals would contain the true proportion but as the confidence intervals will vary so you can't say that the true proportion is in any interval with 95% probability.

d)

FALSE

Once again, this is a wrong interpretation of a confidence interval. The confidence interval tells us about the population parameter and not the sample statistic.

e)

TRUE

This is a correct interpretation of a confidence interval. It indicates that if we perform sampling with same sample size (40000) several times and calculate the 95% confidence interval of population proportion for each of them, then 95% of these confidence interval should contain the population parameter.

f)

The simulation results obtained doesn't always comply with the true population. Also, result of one simulation can't be taken for granted. We need several simulations to come to a conclusion. So, we can never ever guarantee based on a simulation result to say that Donald Trump 'Won't' or 'Shouldn't' win.

There is still probability that he would win. And it would be highly unusual if he wins assuming that the true population proportion is 0.274925.


Related Questions

A group of 12 male and 8 female students is talking about going out for pizza. If 50% of the male students actually go and 25% of the female students actually go, find the probability that a randomly chosen student is female, given that she is among those who go out for pizza.

Answers

Answer:

1/4

Step-by-step explanation:

12*50%=12*0.5=6 males

8*25%=8*0.25=2 females

2+6=8

2 out of 8 students are female

2/8=1/4


List at least three shapes, other than hexagons, In the table. If the shape is a polygon, indicate whether the shape is regular or irregular. Find the number of lines of reflection that will map each shape back on to itself when the shape flips about the line. Also describe the position of the line of reflection.

Answers

Answer:

Shape Number of Lines of Reflection Description

equilateral triangle 3 3 perpendicular bisectors of the sides

regular heptagon 7 7 perpendicular bisectors of the sides

regular octagon 8 4 perpendicular bisectors and 4 lines joining pairs of opposite vertices

Step-by-step explanation:

Data sets A and B are dependent. Find mean of the differences (d bar).
A 32 30 49 45 33
B 30 26 27 37 24
Assume the paired data came from a population that is normally distributed.

Answers

Answer:

9.0

Step-by-step explanation:

Mean = Sum of terms/Number of terms

For Data Set A

Mean = 32 + 30 + 49 + 45 + 33/5

= 189/5

= 37.8

For Data Set B

Mean = 30 + 26 + 27 + 37 + 24/5

= 144/5

= 28.8

Hence, the Mean difference is calculated as the absolute difference between the Mean of Data set A and Data set B

Mean Difference = 37.8 - 28.8

= 9.0

A concession stand at a baseball game sells 3 apples for $2.00. How can you find the cost for 10 apples? A. x=320 B. x=302 C. x=203 D. x=230

Answers

Step-by-step explanation:

In order to solve this question we use ratio and proportion

From the question

3 apples were sold for $2.00

Then

10 apples will be sold for what

That's

[tex] \frac{10 \times 2}{3} \\ = \frac{20}{3} [/tex]

Hope this helps you

Pay for last week is 230.40. You worked 30 hours. How much were you paid

Answers

All we need to do is divide.

230.40 / 30 = $7.68

Therefore, he/she made $7.68 per hour.

Best of Luck!

. A system consists of three subsystems in parallel. Subsystem A has a reliability of 0.98, subsystem B has a reliability of 0.85, and subsystem C has a reliability of 0.88. Calculate the overall system reliability.

Answers

Answer:

[tex]P(System) = 0.73304[/tex]

Step-by-step explanation:

Given

Reliability of:

A = 0.98

B = 0.85

C = 0.88

Required

Determine the overall reliability

The overall system reliability is calculated by multiplying the individual reliability of each subsystems;

i.e.

[tex]P(System) = P(A) * P(B) * P(C)[/tex]

[tex]P(System) = 0.98 * 0.85 * 0.88[/tex]

[tex]P(System) = 0.73304[/tex]

Hence, the overall reliability is  0.73304

For each of the following examples, solve the given problem and write your answer in scientific notation using the proper number of significant figures. Make sure to include all units in your final answers.
The distance from the Earth to the Sun is a measure of distance called the Astronomical Unit (AU). Given: 1.000 AU = 1.496108 km:
a. convert Uranus’ distance of 19.1903 AU to kilometers (km) =
b. convert the distance to the center of the Milky Way galaxy of 2.6x1017 km to AU =

Answers

Answer:

the answer is pythagoras thorium

3/5(4.3 – 7.8) + 2 1/9 ?

Answers

Answer:

0.01

Step-by-step explanation:


PLEASE HELP
Q is in the interior of angle XYZ.
The measure of angle XYZ = 3r +2.
The measure of angle XYQ = 2r-1.
The measure of angle ZYQ = 3r-5.
True
False
r = -3
The measure of angle XYQ = 7
10
r = 4
Ray YQ bisects angle XYZ.

Answers

I had this question before I wish I could help you ‍♀️

Answer:

r=-3 FALSE

m<XYQ=7 TRUE

r=4 TRUE

Ray YQ bisects angle XYZ TRUE

Step-by-step explanation:

2r-1+3r-5=3r+2

5r-6=3r+2

2r=8

r=4

------------------------

r=-3 FALSE

m<XYQ=7 TRUE (XYQ=2r-1=2(4)-1=8-1=7)

r=4 TRUE

Ray YQ bisects angle XYZ TRUE  (ZYQ=3r-5=3(4)-5=12-5=7.  Both XYQ and ZYQ=7, so ray YQ is the bisector)

I don't know what the 10 is for in your question.

Can someone please help??

Answers

Answer:

let the number of cows = x

let the number of chickens = y

since there are 42 heads:

x + y = 42

and since a cow has 4 legs, and a chicken has 2

4x + 2y = 144

from first equation:

x + y  = 42

x = 42 - y (now, we will substitute this in the second equation)

4(42 - y) + 2y = 144

168 - 4y + 2y  = 144

2y = 168 - 144

2y = 24

y = 12

now, we know the number of chickens. we will replace y with 12 in the first equation since it is more simpler

x + 12 = 42

x = 30

So, there are 30 cows and 12 chickens

Brainly it if you find the answer helpful

Some populations, such as bacteria, can be expected under the right conditions to show exponential growth. If 5500 bacteria of a certain type are incubated under ideal conditions, then after t hours
we expect to find 5500 x 1.07^t bacteria present. How many bacteria would we expect to find after 14 hours? (Round your answer to the nearest whole number.)

How many after 3 days?

Answers

Answer:

608945 is the answer.

Step-by-step explanation:

Because..

After 14 hours the population of bacteria is 14190.

What is Exponential Decay?

A quantity is subject to exponential decay if it decreases at a rate proportional to its current value.

Given that Some populations, such as bacteria, can be expected under the right conditions to show exponential growth

If 5500 bacteria of a certain type are incubated under ideal conditions, then after t hours we expect to find [tex]5500(1.07)^{t}[/tex] bacteria present.

We need to find how many bacteria would we expect to find after 14 hours

To find this we have to replace t by 14

5500×(1.07)¹⁴

5500×2.58

14190

Hence, after 14 hours the population of bacteria is 14190.

To learn more on Exponential Decay click:

https://brainly.com/question/2193799

#SPJ2

Solve for "x": 3 (1 + 1) = 5 + 2

Answers

Answer:

Please where is the x in the question

Answer:

Please where is the x in the question

-7 times -8? -40 divided by 10?

Answers

-7 times -8 is 56 and -40 divided by 10 is -4

What is 5 8/12 as a mixed number in its simplest form

Answers

Answer:

5 2/3

Step-by-step explanation:

Just keep simplifying 8/12 until you end up with 2/3

Find the GCF of both the numerator and denominator and you end up with 2/3

Just to make it clear 8/12 = 2/3

Parallelogram ABCD has four congruent sides but no right angles. The diagonals of ABCD intersect at point P.
Which phrase could NOT describe a single transformation that maps parallelogram ABCD onto itself?
A. A rotation of 180 degrees about point P
B.
A rotation of 90 degrees clockwise about point P
o c.
A reflection across the line that passes through points A and C
D.
A reflection across the line that passes through points B and D
Can someone help plssss

Answers

Answer:

A

Step-by-step explanation:

A rotation of 180 degrees about point P

Point I lies between points W and F. WI = 7x – 3.
IF = 2x + 4. WF = 15x – 21. What is the measure of
WF?

Answers

Answer:

WF=34

Step-by-step explanation:

Point I lies between points W and F.

It means point WI + IF = WF

SO WI + IF = WF

WF = 15x – 21

WI= 7x-3

IF= 2x+4

WI + IF = WF

7x-3 +2x+4= 15x-21

7x+2x-15x= -21-4+3

-6x = -22

X= -22/6

X= 11/3

So WF = 15x – 21

WF= 15(11/3) -21

WF= 55-21

WF=34

Tyler wants to calculate his grade in his accounting class. His test grades are a 77%, 62% 85%, 80%. What is his average in the class?

Answers

Answer:

76%

Step-by-step explanation:

Given Tyler test grades to be 77%, 62% 85% and 80%, to find its average in the class, we will find the mean of his grades.

Mean is the ratio of the sum of the grades to the total number of grades given.

[tex]mean (\overline x) = \frac{\sum Xi}{N}[/tex]

Xi are the individual grades

N is the total number of grades = 4

[tex]\overline x = \dfrac{77+62+85+80}{4} \\\overline x = \frac{304}{4}\\ \overline x = 76 % \\[/tex]

Hence his average in the class is 76%

for evaluating functions from a graph what is f(-2)=

Answers

F(-2)= 1f x -2= -2f is the answer

A piece of rope is 33 1/3 yards long and was cut into equal pieces. How many yards was each piece?

Answers

Answer:

              11 ¹/₉ yards

Step-by-step explanation:

You didn't say how many pieces. My answer is for 3 equal pieces.[tex]33\frac13\div3=(33+\frac13)\div3=33\div3+\frac13\div3=11+\frac13\times\frac13=11+\frac19=11\frac19[/tex]

For two it would be:

[tex]33\frac13\div2=(33+\frac13)\div2=33\div2+\frac13\div2=16\frac12+\frac13\times\frac12=\\\\=16\frac36+\frac16=16\frac46=16\frac23[/tex]

If after two hours 4 Inches off snow has fallen how many inches would have fallen after 6.6 hours

Answers

13.2 inches, you divide 4 inches by 2 hours and get 2 inches in 1 hour, then multiply 6.6 by 2

Ready Maid Service charges $25.00 per house, plus an additional $22.00 per hour, h. What
is the constant in this situation?

Answers

Answer:

$25 per house.

Step-by-step explanation:

h, is the variable in this sitution. Quite literally this means that # of hours is the only value that will CHANGE/be variable. Since $25 has no variable assigned with it, it will be constant.

David rolled a number cube 20 times. The cube landed on the number 3 six times. Which best describes what would likely happen if Dan rolled the number cube another 80 times?

Answers

Answer:

It is likely that the experimental probability of 3 will reach towards the theoretical probability of 3, if Dan rolled the number cube another 80 times.

Step-by-step explanation:

A number cube has 6 faces and contains the numbers from 1 to 6 on each of its faces.

And each number is equally likely to come.

i.e. Theoretical probability of each face = [tex]\frac{1}{6}[/tex]

Probability of any event E is given as:

[tex]P(E) = \dfrac{\text{Number of favorable cases}}{\text {Total number of cases}}[/tex]

It is given that number of times 3 occurs is 6 out of 20.

So, experimental probability of 3 = [tex]\frac{6}{20}=\frac{3}{10}[/tex]

Here, we can see that experimental probability of 3 is greater than that of theoretical probability of 3.

But the number of iterations here are smaller in number i.e. only 20.

As the number of iterations will increase, it is likely that the experimental probability of 3 will reach towards the theoretical probability of 3.

So, we can say that:

It is likely that the experimental probability of 3 will reach towards the theoretical probability of 3, if Dan rolled the number cube another 80 times.

2.16=?2, point, 1, start overline, 6, end overline, equals, question mark

Answers

Answer:

[tex]2\frac{4}{25}[/tex]

Step-by-step explanation:

The question asks:

2.16 = ???

The is a decimal number that can be converted to a mixed fraction

2.16 = 2 + 0.16

2 = whole number.

So, we are left with 0.16

We can convert this to a fraction

Since it is in 2 decimal places we Multiply by 100

=( 0.16 × 100)/ 100

= 16/100

We simplify this fraction and we have

= 4/25

Therefore,

2.16 = 2 + 0.16

2.16 = 2 + 4/25

2.16 = [tex]2\frac{4}{25}[/tex]

What is the value of x?

Answers

Answer: 12

Step-by-step explanation:

Since AC bisects ∠BAD, we know that ∠BAC and ∠CAD are equal to each other. To find x, we set them equal to each other.

9x-54=4x+6                              [subtract both sides by 4x]

5x-54=6                                      [add both sides by 54]

5x=60                                         [divide both sides by 5]

x=12

Now, we know that x is 12.

4. The admission fee at a small fair is $1.50 for
children and $4 for adults. On a certain day, 1,486
people enter the fair and $3,479 is collected. How
many children and how many adults attended?
a. 500 adults, 986 children
b. 986 adults, 500 children
c. 432 adults, 1004 children
d. 1004 adults, 432 children

Answers

Answer:

The answer is a

Step-by-step explanation:

500 times 4 is 2,000

986 times 1.50 is 1,479

Therefore your answer is a

¯\(°_o)/¯

(1) Determine whether the relation R on the set of all integers is reflexive, symmetric, antisymmetric, and/or transitive, where (x, y) ∈ R if and only if (a) x − y = 0 (b) x = |y| (c) x + y is odd (2) Which, if any, of the relations from the previous two problems is an equivalence relation?

Answers

Answer:

Step-by-step explanation:

1)

a) x-y = 0

Reflexive :

x-x=0, where x and 0 are whole numbers is valid for all x

In this way, x-x is a number

Which infers that (x,x) ∈ R

In this way, R is reflexive

Symmetric :-

(x-y) is a whole number

Which infers - (x-y) is likewise a whole number

Which infers (y-x) is a number

In this way, (x-y) is a number infers that (y-x) is likewise a whole number

i.e If (x,y)∈R at that point (y,x)∈R

In this way, R is Symmetric.

Against Symmetric:-

(x,y)∈R

x-y=0, where x and y are whole numbers

Which infers x=y

Assume, (y,x)∈R

y-x=0, where x and y are whole numbers

Which infers y=x

Consequently, (x-y) is a whole number suggests (y-x) is additionally a whole number

for example In the event that (x,y)∈R at that point (y,x)∈R, where x=y

R is Anti-Symmetric.

Transitive:-

Given,

(x-y)∈R and (y-z)∈R - (I)

To demonstrate that,

(x,z)∈R

from (I)

x-y= 0 and y-z=0

Including both, we get

(x-y)+(y-z)=0

x-z=0

Consequently demonstrated that (x,y)∈R and (y,z)∈R infers that (x,z)∈R

Since the above connection is symmetric, reflexive advertisement transitive. Consequently, it is an identicalness connection.

b) x=|y|

Reflexive:-

x isn't reflexive.

Since for - 2

- 2 ≠|-2|, where - 2 is a whole number.

- 2≠|2|

Consequently, (x,x) isn't Reflexive.

Symmetric:-

(x,y)∈R, infers

x=|y|, where x and y are whole numbers ...(i)

Let x =-2 and y= - 2

- 2≠|-2|

- 2≠|2|

Which infers (x,y) itself doesn't have a place with R.

Consequently R isn't symmetric.

Against Symmetric:-

(x,y)∈R, suggests

x=|y|, where x and y are numbers

let x= - 2 and y =-2

- 2 ≠ |-2|

- 2≠|2|

R isn't hostile to symmetric.

Transitive:-

x=|y| and y=|z| ∈ R

let x=2, y=-2 and z= 2

infers that

2=|-2| and - 2≠|2|

for example 2=|2| and - 2∉|2|

In this way, R isn't transitive.

c) x+y is odd

Reflexive:-

x+x is even, where x is a whole number.

In this way, (x,x)∉R.

R isn't Reflexive.

Symmetric:-

(x,y)∈R

x+y is odd, where x and y are whole numbers

Additionally, (y,x) is odd

infers that y+x is additionally odd

In this way, (y,x)∈R

R is Symmetric.

Against Symmetric:-

(x,y)∈R

infers x+y is odd, where x and y are whole numbers

infers that y+x is additionally odd

In this way, (y,x)∈R

R is Anti-Symmetric.

Transitive:-

Given,

(x,y)∈R and (y,z)∈R, where x,y and z are whole numbers ...(i)

To demonstrate that

(x,z)∈ R

from (I)

x+y is odd and y+z is odd''

Including both we get

x+2y+z is odd

which infers (x,z)∉R

In this way, R isn't transitive.

2) x-y=0 is reflexive, symmetric and transitive in this way it is an equality connection.

while x=|y| and x+y is odd are not equality relations.

-9x - x - 7x² - 6x² + 8 +6



Help please

Answers

Answer:

[tex] \boxed{ \bold{ \huge{ { \sf{ - 13 {x}^{2} - 10x + 14}}}}}[/tex]

Step-by-step explanation:

[tex] \sf{ - 9x - x - 7 {x}^{2} - 6 {x}^{2} + 8 + 6}[/tex]

Collect like terms

⇒[tex] \sf{ - 7 {x}^{2} - 6 {x}^{2} - 9x - x + 8 + 6}[/tex]

⇒[tex] \sf{ - 13 {x}^{2} - 10x + 8 + 6}[/tex]

Add the numbers

⇒[tex] \sf{ - 13 {x}^{2} - 10x + 14}[/tex]

Hope I helped!

Best regards!!

-13x to the power of 2 - 10x + 14

Select expression that is mathematically equivalent to xy−z+ (a - b) X c. y - 2 O
a) x/y – z + (a - b)
b) Xc O x/(y – z) + (a - b)
c) Xc O x/y - 2 + a - b c O
d) x/(y – z) + a – b xc

Answers

Question:

Select expression that is mathematically equivalent to

[tex]\frac{x}{y-z} + (a-b)*c[/tex]

a) [tex]x/y - z + (a - b) * c[/tex]

b) [tex]x/(y - z) + (a - b) * c[/tex]

c) [tex]x/y - z + a - b * c[/tex]

d) [tex]x/(y - z) + a - b * c[/tex]

Answer:

[tex]x/(y - z) + (a - b) * c[/tex]

Step-by-step explanation:

Given

[tex]\frac{x}{y-z} + (a-b)*c[/tex]

Required

Determine its equivalent

Start by writing y - z in bracket;

[tex]\frac{x}{y-z} + (a-b)*c[/tex]

becomes

[tex]\frac{x}{(y-z)} + (a-b)*c[/tex]

When - is used as divide, it is equivalent to /

The given expression can then be rewritten as

[tex]x/(y - z) + (a - b) * c[/tex]

Hence;

[tex]\frac{x}{y-z} + (a-b)*c[/tex] is equivalent to [tex]x/(y - z) + (a - b) * c[/tex]

solve for x with work

Answers

(2x+40)+(3x+20)=180

because they are supplementary angles

therefore:

2x+3x+40+20=180
5x+60=180
5x=120
x=24

M(8,3) is the midpoint between the points A(4,5) and B. Find the coordinates of B.

Answers

Answer:

(12,-1)

Step-by-step explanation:

Let the coordinates of v to be x and y

(4+x)/2=8

4+x=16

X=12

(5+y)/2=3

5+y=2×3

5+y=6

Y=-1

B(12,-1)

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